在过去的2015年，无论是中国还是世界，都发生了众多事件，出现了一些新变化与新趋势。
北外G20研究中心牛华勇、孙文莉、任康钰、刘铁娃、周鑫宇、史泽华六位专家受央视网邀请，分别就世界经济回顾、中国主要经济事件、中国对 世界的作用和贡献、中国多边外交、国际局势变化、G20机制等议题撰写了多篇国际评论文章。文章内容丰富，分析全面，受到广泛关注。
北京外国语大学二十国集团研究中心（g20.bfsu.edu.cn ）于2010年成立，彭龙校长担任中心主任，国际商学院牛华勇院长担任执行主任，旨在 建设成为具有重要影响的国家战略智库，为进一步加强中国在二十国集团中的话语权与影响力做出贡献，并为政府外交、经济政策以及中国企业国际 化经营提供智力支持。
文章链接：
http://english.cntv.cn/2015/12/30/ARTI1451468836315824.shtml
http://english.cntv.cn/2015/12/24/ARTI1450946226465841.shtml
http://english.cntv.cn/2016/01/04/ARTI1451894083791405.shtml
http://english.cntv.cn/2015/12/22/ARTI1450764660636734.shtml
http://english.cntv.cn/2015/12/31/ARTI1451551696974385.shtml
http://english.cntv.cn/2015/12/17/ARTI1450341326068263.shtml
Year-ender: World economy in 2015-Still calm, but far from smooth
By Niu Huayong, Dean of the International Business School, Beijing Foreign Studies University
The world economy in 2015 can be described as "modest, with clear direction." There were no special improvements or unexpected risks. China's economy had turned into a "new normal." Apart from steady performance of the United States, the economies of European Union, Japan, Russia, and a few developing nations had witnessed declines in their GDP (gross domestic product).
Moscow and Tokyo had introduced more macroeconomic reforms that captured much international media attention, but their economic data showed poor results.
The world economy is experiencing profound structural changes, since the balance of economy powers is being broken, along with its engines of growth, monetary system and governance structure. The global economy has fallen further, and the emerging economies seek a new global governance structure.
Differentiation of global macroeconomic policies
Since last March, the European Central Bank (ECU) has implemented a quantitative easing policy to stimulate the European economy. Such measures were first adopted during the 2008 financial crisis and has been emulated by major economies worldwide ever since.
At the end of 2015, the Federal Reserve (FED) started another operating cycle to indicate changes of U.S. monetary policy. By contrast, China's economy has gradually adapted to medium and high-speed growth in the "new normal." Beijing supports a moderately loose monetary policy, and favors a reformed supply side.
Facing weak international commodity market prices, China, as a big manufacturing nation, whose domestic demand and exports are facing greater pressure, would unlikely shift its monetary policy.
While low oil prices and quantitative easing policy have not really helped Europe, the European Commission warned the continent's financial crisis would still plague its regional economy, due to high debt levels.
Accordingly, the Europe's macroeconomic policies would differentiate from that of the United States for a period of time.
Economic globalization speeds up
In June 2015, the China and South Korea Free Trade Agreement was signed, as well as free trade agreements between China and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), Australia and New Zealand.
On December 5, US-led Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) negotiations had concluded with 12 countries participating. Meanwhile, the ASEAN-initiated Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the US-led Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partner Agreement (TTIP) are being promoted.
Such trade integration addresses problems with WTO (World Trade Organization) development. Regional economic integration is transforming international trade with far-reaching impact on global governance.
New changes in global economic governance structure
The existing system of global economic governance has been led by major western industrial countries, who shun the emerging markets.
In 2015, China, as the largest developing country, has made eye-catching achievements in the process of building a new global economic governance system, as the country has established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (ASIIB) and the Chinese currency, RMB, was welcomed into the International Monetary Fund(IMF)'s Special Drawing Rights (SDRS) reserve currency basket.
China, the US and major economies, G20 Summit, APEC Summit, the UN Climate Change Conference, etc., have all made progress on cooperation mechanisms. These developments can rebalance global governance later on.
China is a global economic growth engine
Despite China's economic annual growth rate dropping to about 7%, the country had contributed to a third of global GDP growth. Even if China's economy growth rate has fallen from 10% to 7%, China's status of the world's economic engine remains irreplaceable.
Ten years ago, China's growth engine had outshined all others, while today it continues to enjoy a high rate of economic growth, and the largest new wealth creator. China's leading role in the global economy stands unchallenged.
(Courtesy to the G20-BFSU Center, Beijing Foreign Studies University)
http://english.cntv.cn/2015/12/30/ARTI1451468836315824.shtml
Year-ender: Chinese economy highlights in 2015
By Professor Sun Wenli, International Business School, Beijing Foreign Studies University
2015 is a landmark year for China on the road to upgrade its economic structure and opening the future of the 13th Five-year plan (2016-2020).
The Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was established, as well as the Internet plus was initiated, and China's currency, the RMB, joined the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) SDR (special drawing rights) basket of reserve currency.
Beijing had continued on with its financial anti-corruption crack down and the People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's Central Bank, had reduced the deposit reserve ratio and base rates.
AIIB comes into fruition
The AIIB was signed in Beijing on June 29, and on Nov. 18, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the AIIB would become a platform for regional connections. The bank is expected to open up formally at the end of the year.
Its core ideas are "capability, honesty and sustainability" to help member states realize stronger economic growth and employment, said Jun Liqun, President-designate of AIIB.
Under the cooperation framework of AIIB, Chinese companies would participate in international public biddings via fair competition, enhance innovative technologies and strive to bring more well-being to Asia and other regions.
Top-level design for Internet plus
In the 3rd Session of the 12th National People's Congress (China's top legislature) on March 5, Premier Li Keqiang proposed the Internet Plus to favor "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" to drive the Chinese economy forward.
The State Council (China's Cabinet) had distributed The Guidance on Promoting Internet+ Action pamphlet to accelerate industrial structure upgrades and build new economic and social development.
By 2018, the Internet would be more utilized for public service, and merged into all fields of the Chinese economy and society. The Internet plus would be a new driving force to support the innovative development of the nation's economy and society by the year 2025.
IMF welcomes RMB to SDR currency basket
On Dec. 1, the IMF welcomed the RMB into the SDR reserve currency basket, which goes into effect on Oct. 1, 2016. It's the fifth currency to enter after the US dollar, euro, British pound and Japanese yen.
The RMB would be more widely-accepted to facilitate international trade and cross-border investments for Chinese companies and make China the pricing country for many global commodities. The Chinese can travel, study and make purchases abroad more easily. The SDR speeds up RMB internationalization that would deepen domestic financial reform on exchange rates and interest rates. Nevertheless, Beijing would stay active in currency policy to reduce global financial risk.
Free trade zones expanded
On March 1, the State Council granted Tianjin, Guangdong and Fujian to have pilot free trade zones, while the Shanghai free trade zone was expanded. On April 21, the pilot free trade zones were listed in China's 2.0 era.
The free trade zones boost reform, opening up and innovative development. Such zones streamline bureaucracy and encourage institutional innovation. In the Shanghai free trade area,"single window" services help enterprises with registration and to record import-export business registration.
In the six months after its expansion, more than 9,000 enterprises signed on, which account for the 20-year's total since its founding. The assets of enterprises from the free trade zone have witnessed rapid growth, especially among newly-increased assets of the Shanghai banking industry in 2015.
Pushing financial anti-corruption efforts
This year marks a dramatic year in China securities history. From a bull market and then to a sudden slump, Chinese investors had experienced an unprecedented stock market disaster.
The irrational slump struck investors' confidence in the Chinese economy and its securities markets. On Oct. 30, Beijing had launched a financial anti-corruption crack down. The next day, the No.13 Central anti-corruption inspection team had placed CITIC Group under investigation.
On Nov. 3, 31 units from 21 financial institutions were inspected, 38 officials were expelled from financial circles. Beijing is combating corruption on behalf of the people and international society.
PBOC cuts interest rates and reserve requirement ratio
In 2015, the PBOC cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratio several times to avoid economic deterioration and to save the stock market. The one-year lending rate was decreased to 4.35% and the one-year deposit rate stood at 1.5%. The reserve requirement ratio was lowered to 17.5%.
Easy monetary policy will continue as long as China's economic growth slows down, deflation exacerbates and capital outflows in the short-term. Yet room for the reserve requirement ratio cut is much larger than for interest rates.
China's macro-economy and financial markets may face increasing uncertainties. Accordingly, Beijing should take precautions. Economic structure reform should be accelerated to transform the industrial structure next year.
http://english.cntv.cn/2015/12/24/ARTI1450946226465841.shtml
Year-ender: China's global contributions in 2015
By Ren Kangyu, G20 Research Institute of Beijing Foreign Studies University
Looking back to 2015, China faced with the structural transformation and upgrading of its economy, entering a new normal development stage. As the largest developing country, China has played more significant roles to enhance global peace, stability and progress.
Beijing also promoted the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP), continued with Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RECP) negotiations, and signed free trade agreements with South Korea and Australia. China's economic growth has largely profited from an open trade environment.
In March, the Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road was issued to bring financial support in the fields of energy, transportation, urban and rural development, as well as logistics for related regions.
On June 29, representatives of 57 founding member states of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) signed an agreement in Beijing, marking the official establishment of the bank.
Supporting "highly capable, clean and green" concepts, the AIIB will boost connectivity of member states, contributing to regional economic growth and employment, and greater well-being of the world.
Meanwhile, as representatives of emerging marketing economy, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have accelerated the building of the Development Bank.
Additionally, China's central bank has signed currency swap agreements with a few other central banks in 2015 and forged a system of safeguards to adjust shocks together in the future.
On Nov. 30, the Chinese currency, Yuan (CNY), was approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to join the SDRs (special drawing rights) reserve currency basket that will go into effect this October.
It's the fifth currency to join the basket after the United States dollar, euro, Great Britain pound and Japan yen; and the first currency hailing from a developing country. The CNY's share in the basket would surpass the yen and pound to reach 10.92% of the basket's valuation share.
The CNY would strengthen its attraction as currency reserve assets, moving ahead to the internationalization of the CNY.
This is a major upgrade to the existing international currency system, which had become too reliant on the USD. Beijing would get more involved with coordinating currency policy with the main economies and defending global financial risk.
Meanwhile, Beijing has reached a new energy cooperation agreement with Moscow and Canberra, while signing a climate change agreement with Washington during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the US last September.
China, a responsible major nation had played an important role in facilitating the conclusion of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris.
Beijing will undertake its international obligations and promote the setting up of a global climate governance system for mutual benefits. In other diplomatic efforts, Chinese leaders had joined the G20 Summit in Turkey and APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) meeting in the Philippines.
China made two commitments in Turkey, such as introducing the sustainable development agenda 2030 into its Thirteenth Five-year Plan (2016-2020) and establishing South-South Cooperation Aid Funds to support the most undeveloped countries.
Beijing has demonstrated its confidence to the world in the Philippines and jointly signed the APEC declaration with leaders from 20 economies. China would be the host country of the G20 Summit in 2016, making Beijing a more significant player in global governance.
Despite the difficulties of economic adjustments, China is making its growth as an important contribution for the world to sustain stability and development. Beijing has gotten more involved in regional and international development to undertake its responsibility as a major nation.
http://english.cntv.cn/2016/01/04/ARTI1451894083791405.shtml
China adds wisdom and strength to next G20 summit
By Shi Zehua, the G20 Research Center, Institute of International Relations, Beijing Foreign Studies University
On December 1, Beijing started preparations to host next year's G20 Summit. As the world's largest developing country, Beijing must impress on the world stage.
Accordingly, Beijing had shouldered much of the responsibility for the world's economic growth patterns. Between 2009 and 2011, China had accounted for more than 50 percent of overall economic growth worldwide.
But now, global economic growth rates have weakened; financial markets volatility has risen, trade and investment remain low, while high unemployment rates persist.
Such imbalances are plaguing national economic trends that prevent further macro-policy coordination among countries. Accordingly, the world economy is calling for new momentum and the 2016 G20 Summit will be highly-anticipated.
Beijing is hoping to capture a stronger voice in the world's economy, to shift the out-dated patterns of world economy; to guide world economic development and political order.
China has already made adjustments to promote sustainable development, while continuing to act as the world's economic engine of growth. Beijing endorses regional investment and infrastructure construction to inject new vitality to the globe.
Beijing is engaged in global governance to ensure fair, just, inclusive and orderly construction.
China's economic growth and development help push away old patterns of the world economy.
China's economic contribution to the world economy remains its first priority. China's economy is undergoing structural adjustments. GDP (gross domestic product) growth rates are slowing down compared with double-digit growth rates in prior years.
However, China's economy remains an important source of growth for the world. China's contribution to world economic growth output has reached 30 percent.
In his speech at the G20 Summit in Turkey last November, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the national economy this year is expected to achieve a 7 percent annual growth rate, which is equivalent to the annual GDP of a medium-sized nation.
When taking total cumulative GDP figures into consideration, China's economy is much larger than before. A 10 percent growth rate 5 years ago would be about 7 percent in today’s cumulative GDP numbers.
Former Canadian Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Bernes held similar views. He said that 6 to 7 percent growth rates of China's economy today would actually represent a 10 percent growth rate five years ago.
In order to promote sustainable growth in "the 13th Five-year Plan", Beijing has launched policy initiatives to deepen reform, propose innovations, enhance coordination, go green along with opening and sharing its concepts.
The five development philosophy would alter the quality of economic development. Meanwhile, Beijing has proposed to double the size of its GDP and per-capita income levels for urban and rural Chinese residents from 2010 figures by the year 2020.
China supports further cooperation.
As China strengthens its international status, Beijing is transitioning from being a follower to acting as a pacemaker by learning to adapt to international rules and to establish new rules.
Meanwhile, developed economies rely on a traditional mechanism for global economic governance to hold on to their international rule-making powers. Such inequality has harmed development.
China, along with other developing countries, favor changing the old system to establish new institutions and to share a stronger voice in the international system.
Each year before the G20 leaders summit, China and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) member countries hold a pre-session to coordinate on issues of common concern.
China's "Belt and Road" initiative could expand economic activities in Asia, Europe and elsewhere. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is expected to enhance infrastructure investments in neighboring countries.
Beijing has launched the Silk Road Fund to forge better economic and diplomatic relations with emerging countries and to boost economic development opportunities.
China seeks reform as golden key.
Beijing supports a new global system, and the G20 would integrate China's wisdom and philosophy.
China has long advocated for win-win cooperation within the G20 framework to strengthen international relations. Promoting global governance via co-discussing, co-construction and sharing, ideas in-depth can be the solution.
The theme of 2016 China Summit will be "Building an innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive world economy." Innovation is the engine for sustained economic growth.
Beijing promotes innovation-driven development in science and technology; developing institutional mechanisms and business models as new sources of growth.
China has proposed to increase endogenous growth that focuses on quality and efficiency. G20 countries advocate for comprehensive inter-operability and close interactions to overcome challenges, gather consensus, and build a global community of destiny.
Creating more inclusive growth can support practical actions to reduce inequality in global development. People all over the world should share in the dividends.
Next year's Summit will also address International Monetary Fund (IMF) quota and governance reforms, and expansion of its special drawing rights (SDR) basket of reserve currency.
The World Bank supports green finance, while coordinating on global value chain development for an inclusive development philosophy.
By promoting reform in the emerging markets and endorsing their voice in the world system could boost global economic growth rates alongside new development concepts, which will provide intellectual support for the world economy.
原文链接：http://english.cntv.cn/2015/12/17/ARTI1450341326068263.shtml
The ongoing geo-political changes of 2015
By Zhou Xinyu, G20 Research Institute of Beijing Foreign Studies University
2015 has witnessed rapid geo-political changes. Nevertheless, no subversive international events had occurred, while major powers remained at peace. The multi-polarization of international strength and the rising authority of countries in the Eastern Hemisphere have not changed either. But, some big events did happen.
The "Islamic State" (IS) had triggered dramatic changes of international relations. When the IS had started to rise, few people paid attention. Even though the IS had adopted cruel means to capture territory, most people ignored the Syrian civil war. Yet, the IS had sharply expanded in a short time, while American troops had retreated.
In 2014, the US army launched strikes on the IS but failed to stop them. In 2015, Russia joined the war against terrorism. Ever since the terrorist attack in Paris in November, European countries - France, Germany and United Kingdom - have deployed military forces in the Middle East.
With the exception of China, the four permanent member states of the United Nations Security Council have all gotten involved. Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia appear ready for war. The IS has threatened global security, and the international community has a common enemy, the Islamists’ extremist terrorists.
The IS has disrupted Washington’s plan to withdraw from the Middle East in a short time and also its “Asia-Pacific pivot” strategy. As a result, the situation provides opportunities for China and the US to cooperate in coping with global security. To some extent, the rise of IS has led to the dramatic development of Iran’s nuclear issue and the Syrian refugee crisis in Europe. To solve these issues, the United States, Russia and Europe need Beijing's support.
Additionally, the reform of the international economic system has made significant progress. Beijing had established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The BRICS Development Bank held its first board meeting in July. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) had reached an agreement.
The AIIB and TPP can be integrated into the current international economic system to accelerate reform. China’s currency, Renminbi, was welcomed to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDR) reserve currency basket. The UN membership dues and peacekeeping budget were adjusted. Even climate change negotiations had made progress.
Global economic recovery is flagging. China's annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate has slowed down. Accordingly, integrating major economic entities have strengthened. Globalization appears to be speeding up with more open, high-standards and economic competition occurring.
http://english.cntv.cn/2015/12/31/ARTI1451551696974385.shtml
China's multi-lateral diplomacy achievements in 2015
By Liu Tiewa, Associate professor of School of International Relations and Diplomacy, Beijing Foreign Studies University; Deputy director of the Research centre on the United Nations and international organizations
In 2015, from the Ministerial Meeting of the China-CELAC (Community of Latina American and Caribbean States) Forum to the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) Council of Heads of Governments, Beijing has promoted friendly relations among countries via multi-lateral diplomacy.
Last September, Chinese President Xi Jinping anchored the Round Table on South-South Cooperation and a Global Summit of Women (GSW) at the United Nations headquarters.
Xi gave a speech at the UN Peacekeeping Summit and the Climate Change luncheon. The world community respects China's voice, while UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Beijing is an indispensable partner for the UN.
Nations are benefiting economically from China, and listening to Beijing's views on reform of the global governing system. Beijing seeks cooperation to undertake greater responsibility for global governance.
Chinese leaders have more chances to highlight Beijing's proposals at multi-lateral meetings, such as the four proposals of developing relations with neighboring countries and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's response to the South China Sea issue.
China is taking a leading position in multi-lateral diplomacy by establishing China-Region cooperative mechanisms with most regions across the world. Such cooperative mechanisms can promote friendly relations in an efficient manner. Although visiting countries are limited in numbers, multi-diplomacy can push forward friendly relations.
Beijing has favored summit diplomacy among heads of states, while substantial achievements have been made that include the China-African Comprehensive Strategic and Cooperative Partnership, South-South Climate Cooperation Fund, etc.
At the UN Climate Summit in Paris, Xi and other leaders signed a consensus agreement, while China and the US played key roles in communications. Beijing has also raised the level of partnerships with African countries, promoting better relation with southeast countries and pushing forward further cooperation with Latin-American countries.
Along with the Belt and Road initiative, China's multi-lateral diplomacy has introduced Chinese technology and products to the world, as well as Beijing’s views on world affairs to avoid misunderstandings. In a multi-lateral framework, China holds stable bilateral relations with most countries, which have contributed to a peaceful, friendly and cooperative world situation.
(Courtesy to the G20-BFSU Center, Beijing Foreign Studies University)
原文链接：http://english.cntv.cn/2015/12/22/ARTI1450764660636734.shtml
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